How I Win 97% Of My Bets
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Arbitrage -
How To Win, Whatever The Outcome
(Or Heads you win, Tails You Still Win!)
"BETTING TO FIGURES" is a guaranteed way to make money, while
still retaining a sporting interest in the outcome of the event.
Some bookmakers are leaders who, having done their homework, set what
they think are correct odds on any given event. Others simply wait for
the leaders to price up and then follow like sheep. Go to any racetrack
and you will see the same sheep furiously copying these odds.
Off course much the same happens. Where this changes is when an event
gets under way with betting updated in running. An odds maker may then
find himself in a corner through ongoing liabilities incurred from the
early stages.
A recent example came in Golf's Dunhill Cup. With the tournament played
over four days, the odds changed dramatically between sessions. The most
glaring example came on the Saturday when the group matches would be decided.
England, who had performed abysmally on the first two days and had no
chance of progressing, were playing Germany, who had not fared much better.
The general view was that the Germans were favourites at around 4/7, with
the England side at around 5/4.
Then came the crunch. One of the Internet firms, "Stan James,"
took the view that the match was very close and made Germany available
at 4/6, with England available at 11/10. The other side of the coin came
from "Coral Eurobet," who took the view that Germany would win
easily and set odds accordingly at 2/9, with England a massive 11/4.
There was now a situation where a guaranteed profit was there for the
taking. In other words, you could back both sides and make a profit whatever
the result.
Our advice on how to take advantage of this kind of situation is (1)
move quickly and (2) make your first bet the team or player you favour
to win.
Returning to our golfing example, imagine that you intend to place a
bet on both England and Germany. The position is now heaven sent. Let's
look at the potential returns:
- £300 on Germany with "Stan James" at 4/6 will return
£500.
- £200 on England with "Coral" at 11/4 will return £750.
- £500 staked in total.
If Germany win there is no profit or loss - we simply win our money back.
The £200 win from "Stan James" is simply redirected to
"Coral." If England win there is a profit of £250 after
"Stan James" has been paid £300 for Germany.
The fun part is that stakes can be adjusted to favour one player or team.
If your thinking is towards Germany, the equation could become:
- £380 on Germany at 4/6 returns £633
- £140 on England at 11/4 returns £525
- £520 staked in total.
A German win now realises a profit of £113 after Coral have been
paid £140. England are winners for the price of a cup of tea and
a bun - £525 minus stakes of £380 and £140 equals £5.
Even with the three per cent charges made by some of the Internet and
offshore companies, it can be seen that there are serious profits to be
had, regardless of how the end result is viewed.
The quick way to spot any such edge is to be familiar with the percentage
for each eventuality. In other words, you need to consider the figure
that will return 100 per cent.
In the example above, the figure for Germany is 60 per cent - £60
at 4/6 wins £40 = £100 returned including stake. For England,
the number is £26.60 - £26.60 at 11/4 wins £73.40 =
£100 returned including stake.
To find this figure, multiply the bottom line of the price by 100 then
divide the result by the top and bottom lines added together: 11/4 = 4
times 100 divided by 15 = 26.66.
Exactly the same principle applies for "odds on" prices. 4/11
= 11 times 100 divided by 15 = 73.33.
Once all of these percentages are written down or memorised, "betting
to figures" opportunities can be easily spotted. Any time the total
percentages come to less than 100, there is a bet to be had.
To show how this kind of opportunity is more common than you might think,
take a look at the following permutations on this seasons football Champions
League Group D betting. In mid-October, after four games had been played,
the following prices were available: Galatasaray 6/5 (Chandler), Rangers
2/1 (Hills). Check the prices and you'll see the book adds up to well
under 100 per cent - meaning you could have backed who you wanted and
still made a profit. All that remains is to decide whom you favour to
win the group, and set your stake accordingly.
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