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Superiority Rating

The Professionals starting point to NFL betting

This simple system has been designed to give an assessment of the two teams that are playing prior to the game. It takes into account a sides ability to defend as well as its capability of scoring to give each side a points rating. The team with the highest score is the strongest mathematically.

Here's how to do it

Firstly you'll need to get hold of some statistics before the game so find a publication that caters well for this. In the UK, "First Down" magazine has everything you need.

Secondly, for the two teams that are playing, find out the following statistics for each team and write them down as follows:

The first part of the system is to Deduct "Points Against" from "Points For" to show how many more points the team has scored in relation to the level of points lost. If a team has conceded more points than it has scored - no points.

Then divide the figure found from the above calculation by the Number of Games Played. The resulting figure is the superiority rating and summarises on average how much stronger a team is in comparison to its opponents. This concludes step one.

Step 2

Now add three points to the figure found in step one to the team playing at home.

Step 3

Now add the bookmakers handicap "plus" (to the appropriate side) to the figures gained in step 1 and 2. This gives you a final superiority rating for a specific team. Simply do the same calculations for the team's opponent. The team with the highest score is the strongest on paper for the "Superiority Rating System" and forms the start of a professional analysis.