How I Win 97% Of My Bets
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 American
Football betting - How to get the odds in your favour!
All set for your five month showdown of Gridiron Football? Well here's
a few tips to put some extra cash in your pocket as well.
Get Smart
Take advantage of the wide-ranging statistics available for the game.
Examples include passing yardage, running yardage, number of downs per
goal, number of sacks per quarterback and so on.
All the information you need to be a shrewd gambler is there for the
taking. Don't just bet on whims or hunches. Take the time to study a little.
Fixed Odds Betting
With fixed odds, you need to be aware that the majority of games are
subject to handicapping. Bookmakers facilitate this to even out the imbalances
between teams in many of the matches.
An example would be to imagine a game lets say between the Bills and
the Jets. Just for the example lets assume that the Jets are in much better
form and look to be big favourites to win. Odds would be very short -
the bookies will handicap the Jets by giving the Bills so many points
start.
They will then offer 10/11 about both sides, but a bet on the Jets would
only be successful if they were to win by more than the point's start
the Bills had been given. You have probably noticed that these handicaps
are always given in half point margins, although it isn't possible to
score half a point in the game. This is done to avoid games ending up
as draws on the handicap.
Beating the Handicap
The obvious answer for beating the fixed odds is to follow the game closely
so that you can judge when a handicap is too high or too low. As a rule
though, why not avoid betting on teams that have to overcome a handicap
of more than about 12 points. You will find that when a team is handicapped
in such a way, they are often far better than their opponents. When teams
in this position feel they have the game won they often ease up and save
their energies for the game ahead.
Its easy to assume that a side has to get 12 points in front to be safe
but in practise this is often not the case. A side losing by more than
seven points will have to score twice to win on top of stopping their
opponents from scoring. Easier said than done, hence often teams on top
will do just enough to preserve their lead, thus making it hard for punters
backing them to overcome a big handicap.
The Law you didn't know about
An important point to note for fixed odds betting is how you may often
witness a much stronger team having a little respect for a far weaker
one. It often seems an accepted practise for the stronger team to not
humiliate their opponents. All fine in practise but this can cause problems
with large handicaps. Hence another reason to avoid teams who have to
overcome handicaps of more than about twelve points.
Tip
On a similar note to above why not avoid betting on sides that have already
won their division or teams that have zero chance of progressing to the
play-offs. These teams are more likely to be taking it easy. Their players
are more likely to hold back avoiding injuries etc in a game that is for
pride only.
In contrast, the crunch games and the play-offs make for good betting,
as you will know that all parties involved will be going flat out to win.
Spread Betting
Bear in mind that all the advice given above applies to spread betting
as well. However, their are a couple of pointers that can be took advantage
of.
Watch out for the speciality spreads that are often made available by
bookmakers on some of the bigger games. An example was one particular
Superbowl where the bookmakers made an important error. One of the biggest
spread betting firm's put up a quote on the number of times a famous Quarterback
would be "sacked" in the final.
However is this particular game the Quarterback was facing a side that
had the greatest "sacking average" out of all the teams. On top of this,
the Quarterback in question had made several remarks about the opposition
during the build up to the game making himself a real target for something
big to happen. You can probably guess the rest. The Quarterback was sacked
almost twice the amount of times the spread suggested allowing a number
of smart gamblers to cash in very nicely.
Know your Statistics
We can't stress enough how important it is to study hard on the sport.
As with all gambling the most successful gamblers are those who have a
passion for what they are doing. It's what separates the boys from the
men and in gambling terms the professionals from the losers. Betting is
often about statistics, if you are experienced you will be able to spot
when the spreads are wrong.
Good Sources of Information
We recommend the "First Down" magazine. Great for statistics. The "USA
Today" newspaper also provides good basic statistics to start off with.
Factor Four (the most important statistics
to judge a side)
- Turnovers : A test of how co-ordinated a side attack has been.
Turnovers occur when the attacking side loses the ball and their opponents
take advantage.
- Penalties : A test of discipline and play. Lots of penalties
will indicate a side doing badly.
- Sacks : A poor side will have had their Quarterback sacked
lots of time indicating bad performance. In contrast, a side that has
sacked many times indicates good defence and a solid unit.
- Average Gains : Shows a teams effectiveness in moving the ball
forward. Simply avoid sides with low average gains as this is another
indicator that they are not in form.
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